Bernie and Donald Take New Hampshire
GRAY AND ORANGE, YOUR PRIMARY COLORS
To no one’s surprise, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump dominated their pretend-Party’s New Hampshire primaries.
New Hampshirites came out strong to support two candidates (Sanders: 60% Dems, Trump: 35.2% Reps) with differing views of how to make America great again. One promises to give government back to the People, end American oligarchy, raise wages, strengthen entitlements, protect the climate, fix infrastructure, lessen income inequality, repair racial disparities, end American prison-dominance and put people to work. The other promises to build a wall, kick out immigrants, put Muslims in their place, eschew political correctness (aka say whatever he wants about women, minorities and handicapped) and beat Mexico & China into submission.
New voters accounted for 15% of each Party’s haul, with most of those supporting The Bern and The Donald.
A bit of history was made last night as Sen. Sanders became the first Jew to ever win a US Presidential primary. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, became the first ever candidate to lose to a Jew in a US Presidential primary. Mazel Tov to both!
Sanders slaughtered Clinton in every demographic, winning all age groups: 18-29 (83%), 30-44 (66%), and 45-64 (53 %); as well as both men (66%), and women (55%). Clinton did win two demos: ages 65+ (55%) and people with incomes over $200k.
Interesting tidbit: Hillary “dishonest” reputation, whether deserved or not, is a huge issue. 34% of New Hampshire Democrats listed “honesty” as one of the most important candidate traits, and 92% of those people voted for Sanders. Guess it just ain’t Republicans who don’t trust Hillary.
On the Republican side, Trump took around 30-40% in every age/gender demo – but the biggest surprise of New Hampshire was Gov. John Kasich, who finished 2nd with 16%. Congrats to New Hampshire for taking their responsibility as first official vote of the nation seriously, and raising the profile of the sanest candidate in the GOP field.
Three Republicans are all vying for
scraps, relevance, 3rd thru 5th place with around 11-12% each, Sen. Ted Cruz, Gov. Jeb! Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio.
Iowa “winner” Ted Cruz’s shtick was never expected to play well with “Live Free or Die” voters, and Cruz certainly didn’t help his cause getting caught playing multiple dirty election-day tricks in Iowa.
Rubio personally acknowledged his brain-fart debate meltdown stalled his mojo, and with opponents like Gov. Chris Christie pounding the “inexperienced robot” theme, Republicans seem less enamored with the guy who was their “savior” just a week prior.
Jeb! and his “Please Clap” supporters will claim victory given they didn’t disappear into oblivion, and Camp Christie is surely disappointed Rubio-bashing didn’t earn him any more (Wall) street-cred.
Although the top dogs have enough money to hang around for a bit and wait for the other guys to F up, look for a couple GOP also-rans to start dropping out and endorsing anybody-but-Trump.
South Carolina is up next for Republicans, and we’re surely in for a scorched-Earth blood-bath. Trump supporters will NEVER turn, so expect the other candidates to go full Hunger Games in hopes of capturing each other’s supporters to overcome the Trumpeters. Jeb! and Kasich will pummel Rubio, while Marco and Cruz will out-Conservative each other for the “I’m the only one who can save Christians from scary Liberals and ISIS!” vote.
Gov. Kasich would like to keep momentum, but his sane/positive campaign won’t play well in ultra-Conservative South Carolina. Expect the other guys to mostly ignore him, but Camp Kasich will try to stay positive and push for a big win in Nevada a few days later on the 23rd. Trump might be dominating the disaffected voter demo, but Kasich will continue to sell himself as the Anti-Trump alternative also sick of Washington disfunction.
The Democrats bring their election gambling to Nevada, and Clinton will dig deep into her 3 decade bag-of-tricks to stop the Sanders surge. After losing many areas of NH she won in 2008 against Obama, Clinton has to deliver a better message than “It’s my turn.” It will be interesting if the no-negative campaign Sanders can sustain a full blown Clinton attack the likes of which he’s never experienced.
Expect some fireworks – and duds – between now and South Carolina/Nevada primaries on February 20.
Update: Gov. Christie and Carly Fiorina suspended their Presidential
fundraising scams campaigns Wednesday.