Iowa Caucused – Now What?

 

"THANKS A LOT, IOWA."

“GO HOME IOWA, YOU’RE DRUNK.”


 

The first official voting for 2016 is in the books. So what do we know?

Iowa Democrats split down the middle between Sec. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders. The Democratic race ended in a virtual tie, with Hillary given the slight edge over Sanders (49.8% – 49.6%). Interestingly, 3 districts were so close that they were decided by coin-flips – and Hillary won all 3 coin-flips. Bernie needs a better coin-flip consultant.

(Update: Later reports say 7 districts came down to coin-flips and Hillary won 6 of 7.)

Both candidates are claiming victory, but everyone must be shocked how well the atheist, democratic-socialist Jew did in middle America. Bernie absolutely dominated the under-30 vote (84%) and took 54% of 30-45 year olds. On the other hand, Clinton took 58% of 45-64 year olds and 69% of those over 65. As the youth vote isn’t particularly reliable when it comes to actually showing up (youth vote down 4% from when Obama won Iowa in 2008), Clinton is still poised to be the more electable of the two.

As far as Republicans are concerned, they got themselves a genuine 3 horse race: Sen. Ted Cruz (26%), Donald Trump (24%) and Sen. Marco Rubio (21%).

Cruz declared this “a victory for courageous Conservatives,” but someone forgot to tell him over 70% of Iowan Republicans voted against him. Also, the last two Republican Iowa winners were Sen. Rick Santorum and Gov. Mike Huckabee – how did they fare again?

As far as numbers go, 64% of Republican Iowans are evangelical Christian, so it’s no surprise that Pastor Cruz led the way. Team Trump might be disappointed with a 2nd place finish, but with tens of thousands of more Iowans showing up than in 2012, it’s clear the Donald’s draws out previous non-voters (40% of total caucusers were first-timers) whether they’re motivated to vote for him or against him (only 3 of 10 new voters sided with Trump). Bronze-medal winning Team Rubio declared “victory!” to anyone that’ll listen, but Marco’s hoping to ride this 3rd place momentum to a 2nd (or higher) place finish in the less evangelical state of New Hampshire next week.

Gov. Bush won’t be bragging about his pathetic 6th place showing.  Jeb! was backed a mere 2.8% of Iowan Republicans, which means his campaign spent about $2,884 per Hawkeye voter. Someone take away the checkbook.

With the top 3 sewn up, the question becomes: as the others start drop out, who do their supporters back?

Dr. Carson’s supporters pride themselves on being outsiders, and would likely back Trump. Gov. Bush and Gov. Christie supporters would probably back the establishment wunderkind, Rubio. Sen. Rand’s libertarian backers probably go with anti-establishment Trump. Gov. Kasich’s supporter(s) would pick the “saner” choice in Rubio. Gov. Huckabee’s and Sen. Santorum’s supporters (aka their families) would probably back the evangelical Cruz.

Still anybody’s race(s). Let’s see what happens now that the next leg of the Tour de Presidency reaches New Hampshire.

Also, for a good chuckle, check out what 2013 Trump had to say about 2016 Iowa Trump:

Screen Shot 2016-02-02 at 9.55.51 AM

On a sad note, there are two candidates who won’t be reveling in celebration-sex today: Gov. Martin O’Malley and Gov. Huckabee both ended their Presidential campaigns after Iowans totally forgot they were running.

Read: 3 Iowa Democratic Caucus districts decided by coin-flip. – The Des Moines Register

Read: Cruz tops Trump in Iowa; Clinton, Sanders too close to call – Star Tribune.

Read: Iowa Caucuses: Ted Cruz Wins, Clinton declares victory – CNN. 

Read: How Iowa Voted – FiveThirtyEight.

Read: How Ted Cruz Won Iowa – Washington Post. 

Read: Iowa Caucus Results: 6 Things That Explain How It Happened – NPR.org.